DHS Issues National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) Bulletin

"Today, Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro N. Mayorkas issued a National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) Bulletin regarding the current heightened threat environment across the United States.  This NTAS Bulletin replaces the current Bulletin, which was set to expire tomorrow at 2:00 pm. 

As of November 10, 2021, DHS is not aware of an imminent and credible threat to a specific location in the United States.  The United States continues to face a diverse and challenging threat environment as we approach several religious holidays and associated mass gatherings that in the past have served as potential targets for acts of violence.  Through the remainder of 2021 and into 2022, domestic violent extremists (DVEs), including racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists and anti-government/anti-authority violent extremists, will continue to pose a significant threat to our homeland.  Of note, DVEs and those inspired or motivated by foreign terrorists and other malign foreign influences will continue to exploit online forums to influence and spread violent extremist narratives and promote violent activity.  The ongoing global pandemic continues to exacerbate these threats.  Further, foreign terrorist organizations and DVEs continue to attempt to inspire potential followers to conduct attacks in the United States, including by exploiting recent events in Afghanistan.  

“DHS has renewed its commitment to work with our partners across every level of government, the private sector, and local communities to combat all forms of terrorism and targeted violence. We have also renewed our commitment to communicate with the American public often about the evolving threat landscape,” said Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas.  “Today, we are issuing the fourth NTAS Bulletin since January 2021.  The threat stream has not changed significantly; however this is an important product that keeps the public updated about threats facing the United States and underscores the importance of the public to staying vigilant and reporting suspicious activity to law enforcement.”.."
National terrorism 

Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040

"We assess that climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to US national security interests as the physical impacts increase and geopolitical tensions mount about how to respond to the challenge. Global momentum is growing for more ambitious greenhouse gas emissions reductions, but current policies and pledges are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Countries are arguing about who should act sooner and competing to control the growing clean energy transition. Intensifying physical effects will exacerbate geopolitical flashpoints, particularly after 2030, and key countries and regions will face increasing risks of instability and need for humanitarian assistance.

• As a baseline, the IC uses the US Federal Scientific community’s high confidence in global projections of temperature increase and moderate confidence in regional projections of the intensity of extreme weather and other effects during the next two decades. Global temperatures have increased 1.1˚C since pre-industrial times and most likely will add 0.4˚C to reach 1.5˚C around 2030.

• The IC has moderate confidence in the pace of decarbonization and low to moderate confidence in how physical climate impacts will affect US national security interests and the nature of geopolitical conflict, given the complex dimensions of human and state decisionmaking.

Key Judgment 1:

Geopolitical tensions are likely to grow as countries increasingly argue about how to accelerate the reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions that will be needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Debate will center on who bears more responsibility to act and to pay—and how quickly—and countries will compete to control resources and dominate new technologies needed for the clean energy transition. Most countries will face difficult economic choices and probably will count on technological breakthroughs to rapidly reduce their net emissions later. China and India will play critical roles in determining the trajectory of temperature rise.

Key Judgment 2:

The increasing physical effects of climate change are likely to exacerbate cross-border geopolitical flashpoints as states take steps to secure their interests. The reduction in sea ice already is amplifying strategic competition in the Arctic over access to its natural resources. Elsewhere, as temperatures rise and more extreme effects manifest, there is a growing risk of conflict over water and migration, particularly after 2030, and an increasing chance that countries will unilaterally test and deploy large-scale solar geoengineering—creating a new area of disputes.

Key Judgment 3:

Scientific forecasts indicate that intensifying physical effects of climate change out to 2040 and beyond will be most acutely felt in developing countries, which we assess are also the least able to adapt to such changes. These physical effects will increase the potential for instability and possibly internal conflict in these countries, in some cases creating additional demands on US diplomatic, economic, humanitarian, and military resources. Despite geographic and financial resource advantages, the United States and partners face costly challenges that will become more difficult to manage without concerted effort to reduce emissions and cap warming.."
Climate change and national security 

Deep Fakes and National Security

Updated May 7, 2021

"“Deep fakes”—a term that first emerged in 2017 to describe realistic photo, audio, video, and other forgeries generated with artificial intelligence (AI) technologies—could present a variety of national security challenges in the years to come. As these technologies continue to mature, they could hold significant implications for congressional oversight, U.S. defense authorizations and appropriations, and the regulation of social media platforms.

How Are Deep Fakes Created?

Though definitions vary, deep fakes are most commonly described as forgeries created using techniques in machine learning (ML)—a subfield of AI—especially generative adversarial networks (GANs). In the GAN process, two ML systems called neural networks are trained in competition with each other. The first network, or the generator, is tasked with creating counterfeit data—such as photos, audio recordings, or video footage—that replicate the properties of the original data set. The second network, or the discriminator, is tasked with identifying the counterfeit data. Based on the results of each iteration, the generator network adjusts to create increasingly realistic data. The networks continue to compete—often for thousands or millions of iterations—until the generator improves its performance such that the discriminator can no longer distinguish between real and counterfeit data.

Though media manipulation is not a new phenomenon, the use of AI to generate deep fakes is causing concern because the results are increasingly realistic, rapidly created, and cheaply made with freely available software and the ability to rent processing power through cloud computing. Thus, even unskilled operators could download the requisite software tools and, using publically available data, create increasingly convincing counterfeit content..."
Deep Fakes 

Deep Fakes and National Security

"“Deep fakes”—a term that first emerged in 2017 to describe realistic photo, audio, video, and other forgeries generated with artificial intelligence (AI) technologies—could present a variety of national security challenges in the years to come. As these technologies continue to mature, they could hold significant implications for congressional oversight, U.S. defense authorizations and appropriations, and the regulation of social media platforms.

 How Are Deep Fakes Created?

 Though definitions vary, deep fakes are most commonly described as forgeries created using techniques in machine learning (ML)—a subfield of AI—especially generative adversarial networks (GANs). In the GAN process, two ML systems called neural networks are trained in competition with each other. The first network, or the generator, is tasked with creating counterfeit data—such as photos, audio recordings, or video footage—that replicate the properties of the original data set. The second network, or the discriminator, is tasked with identifying the counterfeit data. Based on the results of each iteration, the generator network adjusts to create increasingly realistic data. The networks continue to compete—often for thousands or millions of iterations—until the generator improves its performance such that the discriminator can no longer distinguish between real and counterfeit data.

Though media manipulation is not a new phenomenon, the use of AI to generate deep fakes is causing concern because the results are increasingly realistic, rapidly created, and cheaply made with freely available software and the ability to rent processing power through cloud computing. Thus, even unskilled operators could download the requisite software tools and,  data, create increasingly convincing counterfeit content..."
Deep Fakes 

Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community

"Threats to US national security will expand and diversify in the coming year, driven in part by China and Russia as they respectively compete more intensely with the United States and its traditional allies and partners. This competition cuts across all domains, involves a race for technological and military superiority, and is increasingly about values. Russia and China seek to shape the international system and regional security dynamics and exert influence over the politics and economies of states in all regions of the world and especially in their respective backyards.

 China and Russia are more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s, and the relationship is likely to strengthen in the coming year as some of their interests and threat perceptions converge, particularly regarding perceived US unilateralism and interventionism and Western promotion of democratic values and human rights.

 As China and Russia seek to expand their global influence, they are eroding once wellestablished security norms and increasing the risk of regional conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and East Asia.

 At the same time, some US allies and partners are seeking greater independence from Washington in response to their perceptions of changing US policies on security and trade and are becoming more open to new bilateral and multilateral partnerships..."
Threat assessment

Cybersecurity: Cybercrime and National Security Authoritative Reports and Resources

"As online attacks grow in volume and sophistication, the United States is expanding its cybersecurity efforts. Cybercriminals continue to develop new ways to ensnare victims, whereas nation-state hackers compromise companies, government agencies, and businesses to create espionage networks and steal information. Threats come from both criminals and hostile countries, especially China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

Much is written on this topic, and this CRS report directs the reader to authoritative sources that address many of the most prominent issues. The annotated descriptions of these sources are listed in reverse chronological order, with an emphasis on material published in the past several years. This report includes resources and studies from government agencies (federal, state, local, and international), think tanks, academic institutions, news organizations, and other sources:

Table 1—cybercrime, data breaches and security, including hacking, real-time attack maps, and statistics (such as economic estimates)
Table 2—national security, cyber espionage, and cyberwar, including Stuxnet,
Table 3—cloud computing, the Internet of Things (IoT), and FedRAMP..."
Cybercrime and national security

Improved Security Procedures for Refugees Entering the United States

"Today, President Donald J. Trump announced the implementation of improved security procedures for refugees entering the United States. These new measures are part of the administration’s effort to raise national security standards for all persons traveling to the United States, and they are designed to intensify screening in order to keep nefarious and fraudulent actors from exploiting the refugee process to enter the United States.  The measures come at the end of a 120-day “pause” on refugee resettlement, while the United States government conducted a thorough review of the existing program.

“The security of the American people is this administration’s highest priority, and these improved vetting measures are essential for American security,” said Acting Secretary of Homeland Security Elaine Duke. “These new, standardized screening measures provide an opportunity for the United States to welcome those in need into our country, while ensuring a safer, more secure homeland.”

In accordance with section 6(a) of Executive Order 13780, the United States government, including the Departments of State (State) and Homeland Security (DHS), in consultation with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), conducted a review of the United States Refugee Admissions Program application and adjudication process. The goal of this review was to determine what additional procedures should be used to ensure that individuals seeking admission as refugees do not pose a threat to the security and welfare of the United States.

As a result of this review, the United States government is implementing program enhancements to raise the bar for vetting and screening procedures, including but not limited to:  increased data collection to more thoroughly investigate applicants, better information sharing between agencies to identify threat actors, and new training procedures to strengthen screener ability to detect fraud and deception..."
Refugees entering U.S.

Presidential Authority to Permit Access to National Security Information

"It appears more likely than not that the President is presumed to have the authority to disclose classified information to foreign agents in keeping with his power and responsibility to advance U.S. national security interests.

As President Trump recently asserted, his “authority to classify and control access to information bearing on the national security flows from the Constitution and does not depend upon a legislative grant of authority.” As one observer noted, the language appears to be drawn from a 1988 Supreme Court case, Department of the Navy v. Egan, in which the Court held the Merit Systems Protection Board could not review an agency decision denying an employee a security clearance. While some interpret Egan as recognizing that the President has virtually plenary authority to control classified information, the Court has suggested elsewhere that “Congress could certainly [provide] that the Executive Branch adopt new [classification procedures] or [establish] its own procedures—subject only to whatever limitations the Executive Privilege may be held to impose on such congressional ordering.” Congress has legislated with respect to classified information on numerous occasions, some of which are outlined in this CRS report, while also generally deferring to the executive branch regarding the classification – and declassification – of national security information..."
National security information

A Shift in the International Security Environment: Potential Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress

"World events have led some observers, starting in late 2013, to conclude that the international security environment has undergone a shift from the familiar post-Cold War era of the past 20 to 25 years, also sometimes known as the unipolar moment (with the United States as the unipolar power), to a new and different situation that features, among other things, renewed great power competition with China and Russia and challenges by these two countries and others to elements of the U.S.-led international order that has operated since World War II.

A previous change in the international security environment—the shift in the late 1980s and early 1990s from the Cold War to the post-Cold War era—prompted a broad reassessment by the Department of Defense (DOD) and Congress of defense funding levels, strategy, and missions that led to numerous changes in DOD plans and programs. Many of these changes were articulated in the 1993 Bottom-Up Review (BUR), a reassessment of U.S. defense plans and programs whose very name conveyed the fundamental nature of the reexamination that had occurred..."
International security

Fact Sheet: Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States

"Interior enforcement of our nation's immigration laws is critically important to the national security and public safety of the United States. Aliens who illegally enter the United States and those who overstay or otherwise violate the terms of their visas have violated our nation’s laws and can pose a threat to national security and public safety. This is particularly true for aliens who engage in criminal conduct in the United States. We are charged with faithfully executing the laws of the United States and we will not exempt classes or categories of removable aliens from potential enforcement. The Executive Order No. 13768 entitled “Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States” directs our Department and agencies to enforce the law, and we will do so professionally and humanely.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will make use of all available systems and resources to enforce the law. DHS will also ensure that aliens ordered removed from the United States are promptly removed. The victims of crimes committed by removable aliens and the families of victims will also receive support from the Department.

Authorities

The executive order and its implementation is grounded in authorities vested in the President by the Constitution and laws of the United States of America, including  authority of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) (8 U.S.C. 1101 et seq.) and implements responsibilities to ensure that the nation’s immigration laws are faithfully executed...."
Public safety in interior of the United States

National Security Letters in Foreign Intelligence Investigations: A Glimpse at the Legal Background

"Five federal statutes authorize intelligence officials to request certain business record information in connection with national security investigations. The authority to issue these national security letters (NSLs) is comparable to the authority to issue administrative subpoenas. The USA PATRIOT Act (P.L. 107-56) expanded the authority under the original four NSL statutes and created a fifth. Thereafter, the authority was reported to have been widely used. Then, a report by the Department of Justice’s Inspector General (IG) found that in its use of expanded USA PATRIOT Act authority the FBI had “used NSLs in violation of applicable NSL statutes, Attorney General Guidelines, and internal FBI policies,” although it concluded that no criminal laws had been broken. A year later, a second IG report confirmed the findings of the first, and noted the corrective measures taken in response. A third IG report, critical of the FBI’s use of exigent letters and informal NSL alternatives, noted that the practice had been stopped and related problems addressed..."
National security letters

National Security Strategy - 2015

"In a young century, opportunities for America abound, but risks to our security remain. This new

National Security Strategy positions the United States to safeguard our national interests through strong and sustainable leadership. It sets out the principles and priorities to guide the use of American power and influence in the world. It advances a model of American leadership rooted in the foundation of America’s economic and technological strength and the values of the American people. It redoubles our commitment to allies and partners and welcomes the constructive contributions of responsible rising powers. It signals our resolve and readiness to deter and, if necessary, defeat potential adversaries. It affirms America’s leadership role within a rules-based international order that works best through empowered citizens, responsible states, and effective regional and international organizations. And it serves as a compass for how this Administration, in partnership with the Congress, will lead the world through a shifting security landscape toward a more durable peace and a new prosperity.."

National security

National Security Strategy: Mandates, Execution to Date, and Issues for Congress

"This report offers a brief overview of the role of strategy in conducting the business of national security; and it reviews the major statutory and non-statutory mandates for national security activities, addressing both requirements and execution to date..."
National Security Strategy

The Protection of Classified Information: The Legal Framework

"This report provides an overview of the relationship between executive and legislative authority
over national security information, and summarizes the current laws that form the legal framework protecting classified information, including current executive orders and some agency regulations pertaining to the handling of unauthorized disclosures of classified information by government officers and employees. The report also summarizes criminal laws that pertain specifically to the unauthorized disclosure of classified information, as well as civil and administrative penalties..."
https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/secrecy/RS21900.pdf

Presidential Policy Directive 8 and the National Preparedness System: Background and Issues for Congress

"Presidential Policy Directive 8: National Preparedness (PPD-8) was signed and released by
President Barack Obama on March 30, 2011. PPD-8 and its component policies intend to guide
how the nation, from the federal level to private citizens, can “prevent, protect against, mitigate the effects of, respond to, and recover from those threats that pose the greatest risk to the security of the Nation.” These threats include terrorist acts, natural disasters, and other man-made incidents. PPD-8 evolves from, and supersedes, Homeland Security Presidential Directive 8, which was released under President George W. Bush. PPD-8 is intended to meet many
requirements of Subtitle C of the Post-Katrina Emergency Reform Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-295,
6 U.S.C. §741- 764)..."

Critical Infrastructures: Background, Policy, and Implementation
"The nation’s health, wealth, and security rely on the production and distribution of certain goods and services. The array of physical assets, functions, and systems across which these goods and services move are called critical infrastructures (e.g., electricity, the power plants that generate it, and the electric grid upon which it is distributed).

The national security community has been concerned for some time about the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to both physical and cyber attack. In May 1998, President Clinton released Presidential Decision Directive No. 63. The Directive set up groups within the federal government to develop and implement plans that would protect government-operated infrastructures and called for a dialogue between government and the private sector to develop a National Infrastructure Assurance Plan that would protect all of the nation’s critical infrastructures by the year 2003. While the Directive called for both physical and cyber protection
from both man-made and natural events, implementation focused on cyber protection against man-made cyber events (i.e., computer hackers). However, given the physical damage caused by the September 11 attacks, physical protection of critical infrastructures has received increased attention.."

Information Security Oversight Office, Report to the President 2010
"...This report provides information on the status of the security classification program as required by Executive Order 13526, “Classified National Security Information” (the Order). It provides statistics and analysis concerning key components of the system, primarily classification and declassification, and
coverage of ISOO’s reviews. It also contains information with respect to industrial security in the private sector as required by Executive Order 12829, as amended, “National Industrial Security Program.”

FY 2010 was a notable year for the security classification program. The initial implementation of Executive Order 13526 began in earnest and remains ongoing. To comply with your direction that a government-wide implementing directive be issued within 180 days, we led an interagency working group that developed 32 C.F.R. Part 2001 which became effective and binding on all appropriate Executive branch agencies on June 25, 2010..."

The State Secrets Privilege: Preventing the Disclosure of Sensitive National Security Information During Civil Litigation.
"The state secrets privilege is a judicially created evidentiary privilege that allows the federal
government to resist court-ordered disclosure of information during litigation if there is a
reasonable danger that such disclosure would harm the national security of the United States.
Although the common law privilege has a long history, the Supreme Court first described the
modern analytical framework of the state secrets privilege in the 1953 case of United States v.
Reynolds, 345 U.S. 1 (1953). In Reynolds, the Court laid out a two-step procedure to be used
when evaluating a claim of privilege to protect state secrets. First, there must be a formal claim of privilege, lodged by the head of the department which has control over the matter, after actual
personal consideration by that officer. Second, a court must independently determine whether the
circumstances are appropriate for the claim of privilege, and yet do so without forcing a
disclosure of the very thing the privilege is designed to protect. If the privilege is appropriately
invoked, it is absolute and the disclosure of the underlying information cannot be compelled by
the court...

The Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security
"Yemen is not currently a failed state, but it is experiencing huge political and economic problems that can have a direct impact on U.S. interests in the region. It has a rapidly expanding population with a resource base that is limited and already leaves much of the current population in poverty. The government obtains around a third of its budget revenue from sales of its limited and declining oil stocks, which most economists state will be exhausted by 2017. Yemen has critical water shortages aggravated by the use of extensive amounts of water and agricultural land for production of the shrub qat, which is chewed for stimulant and other effects but has no nutritional value. All of these problems are especially difficult to address because the central government has only limited capacity to extend its influence into tribal areas beyond the capital and major cities. Adding to these difficulties, Yemen is also facing a variety of interrelated national security problems that have strained the limited resources of the government, military, and security forces. In Sa’ada province in Yemen’s northern mountainous region, there has been an intermittent rebellion by Houthi tribesmen who accuse the government of discrimination and other actions against their Zaydi Shi’ite religious sect. In southern Yemen, a powerful independence movement has developed which is mostly nonviolent but is also deeply angry and increasingly confrontational..."

National Security Strategy, 2010
"The President’s highest priority is always to keep the American people safe. Today the Administration is releasing the National Security Strategy that lays out a strategic approach for advancing American interests, including the security of the American people, a growing U.S. economy, support for our values, and an international order that can address 21st century challenges.

Read the full National Security Strategy (pdf)
The National Security Strategy is guided by a clear understanding of our increasingly interconnected world where the free flow of information, people and goods continues to accelerate at an unprecedented pace promising new opportunities while simultaneously posing challenges that no longer recognize borders: global networks of terrorists and criminals, threats in space and cyberspace, a degrading climate, and technologies with tremendous destructive power. The response systems and international architecture of the 20th century, designed for another time, are buckling under the weight of these new threats. Currently, these realities describe the world as it is..."