"In choosing how much to work, people respond to incentives that are partly determined by taxes on income
from that work and by government benefits that vary with income. Those responses play a critical role in the
Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) analyses of the effects of changes in fiscal policy on economic outcomes..."
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/10-25-2012-Labor_Supply_and_Fiscal_Policy.pdf
Showing posts with label fiscal_policy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fiscal_policy. Show all posts
Friday, October 26, 2012
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Economic Effects of Reducing the Fiscal Restraint That Is Scheduled to Occur in 2013
"If the fiscal policies currently in place are continued in coming years, the revenues collected by the federal government will fall far short of federal spending. That gap will grow over time as the aging of the population and the rising cost of health care continue to boost federal spending under current policies. Therefore, putting the budget on a sustainable path will require significant changes in spending policies, tax policies, or both..."
Monday, September 19, 2011
Confronting the Nation’s Fiscal Policy Challenge
Statement of Statement of Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director Congressional Budget Office before the
Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, U.S. Congress, September 13, 2011.
Statement of Statement of Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director Congressional Budget Office before the
Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, U.S. Congress, September 13, 2011.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Fiscal Stress Faced by Local Governments
"Local governments—including counties, cities, towns, school districts, and special districts—play a significant role in people’s lives and in the nation’s economy. In 2009, the expenditures of local governments equaled 8.7 percent of gross domestic product, and those governments employed just over 9 percent of the labor force. That year, local governments as a group cut their spending in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. This year and in upcoming years, they expect to constrain spending and services—primarily because of reductions in state aid and falling revenues. In particular, revenues from property taxes are poised to decline to reflect lower property values. To the extent that local governments address budget gaps by reducing spending or raising taxes, such changes will partially counteract the federal government’s fiscal support for the economy.
In light of those developments, this Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issue brief describes the economic conditions and budgeting practices that can lead to significant budgetary challenges—often termed fiscal stress—at the local level..."
"Local governments—including counties, cities, towns, school districts, and special districts—play a significant role in people’s lives and in the nation’s economy. In 2009, the expenditures of local governments equaled 8.7 percent of gross domestic product, and those governments employed just over 9 percent of the labor force. That year, local governments as a group cut their spending in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. This year and in upcoming years, they expect to constrain spending and services—primarily because of reductions in state aid and falling revenues. In particular, revenues from property taxes are poised to decline to reflect lower property values. To the extent that local governments address budget gaps by reducing spending or raising taxes, such changes will partially counteract the federal government’s fiscal support for the economy.
In light of those developments, this Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issue brief describes the economic conditions and budgeting practices that can lead to significant budgetary challenges—often termed fiscal stress—at the local level..."
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Fiscal Policy Choices in Uncertain Times
Congressional Budget Office Director's Blog, Sept. 19, 2010.
"I’m speaking this afternoon to the Washington Policy Seminar sponsored by the Macroeconomic Advisers forecasting firm. My presentation draws on several reports that CBO has released over the course of this year and emphasizes these points:
CBO and most private forecasters expect that the economic recovery will proceed at a modest pace during the next few years. For example, in the forecast that we completed in early July, the unemployment rate remains above 8 percent until 2012. In addition, the economic data released since we finished that forecast have been weaker than we had expected, so if we were to construct a new forecast today, we would project slightly slower growth in the near term.
Weak economic growth has serious social consequences. About 9½ percent of the labor force is officially unemployed, but many other people are underemployed or have left the labor force. The increase in unemployment is not uniform across demographic groups or regions, with larger run-ups for less-educated workers, men, and people living in certain states. The incidence of unemployment lasting longer than 26 weeks has been the highest by far in the past 60 years. As discussed in our April issue brief, the short-term and long-term impact on people of losing a job during a recession can be very significant..."
Congressional Budget Office Director's Blog, Sept. 19, 2010.
"I’m speaking this afternoon to the Washington Policy Seminar sponsored by the Macroeconomic Advisers forecasting firm. My presentation draws on several reports that CBO has released over the course of this year and emphasizes these points:
CBO and most private forecasters expect that the economic recovery will proceed at a modest pace during the next few years. For example, in the forecast that we completed in early July, the unemployment rate remains above 8 percent until 2012. In addition, the economic data released since we finished that forecast have been weaker than we had expected, so if we were to construct a new forecast today, we would project slightly slower growth in the near term.
Weak economic growth has serious social consequences. About 9½ percent of the labor force is officially unemployed, but many other people are underemployed or have left the labor force. The increase in unemployment is not uniform across demographic groups or regions, with larger run-ups for less-educated workers, men, and people living in certain states. The incidence of unemployment lasting longer than 26 weeks has been the highest by far in the past 60 years. As discussed in our April issue brief, the short-term and long-term impact on people of losing a job during a recession can be very significant..."
Sunday, August 1, 2010
FEDERAL DEBT AND THE RISK OF A FISCAL CRISIS
"Over the past few years, U.S. government debt held by the public has grown rapidly—to the point that, compared with the total output of the economy, it is now higher than it has ever been except during the period around World War II. The recent increase in debt has been the result of three sets of factors: an imbalance between federal revenues and spending that predates the recession and the recent turmoil in financial markets, sharply lower revenues and elevated spending that derive directly from those economic conditions, and the costs of various federal policies implemented in response to the conditions.
Further increases in federal debt relative to the nation’s output (gross domestic product, or GDP) almost certainly lie ahead if current policies remain in place. The aging of the population and rising costs for health care will push federal spending, measured as a percentage of GDP, well above the levels experienced in recent decades. Unless policymakers restrain the growth of spending, increase revenues significantly as a share of GDP, or adopt some combination of those two approaches, growing budget deficits will cause debt to rise to unsupportable levels..."
"Over the past few years, U.S. government debt held by the public has grown rapidly—to the point that, compared with the total output of the economy, it is now higher than it has ever been except during the period around World War II. The recent increase in debt has been the result of three sets of factors: an imbalance between federal revenues and spending that predates the recession and the recent turmoil in financial markets, sharply lower revenues and elevated spending that derive directly from those economic conditions, and the costs of various federal policies implemented in response to the conditions.
Further increases in federal debt relative to the nation’s output (gross domestic product, or GDP) almost certainly lie ahead if current policies remain in place. The aging of the population and rising costs for health care will push federal spending, measured as a percentage of GDP, well above the levels experienced in recent decades. Unless policymakers restrain the growth of spending, increase revenues significantly as a share of GDP, or adopt some combination of those two approaches, growing budget deficits will cause debt to rise to unsupportable levels..."
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