Afghanistan: Politics, Elections, and Government Performance
"The Afghan government’s limited writ and widespread official corruption are helping sustain a
Taliban insurgency, and have fed pessimism about the Afghanistan stabilization effort. President
Hamid Karzai has previously been able to confine ethnic disputes to political competition by
engaging in compromises with major faction leaders, combined with occasional moves to weaken
them. This strategy has enabled Karzai to focus on trying, with limited success to date, to win
over disillusioned members of his ethnic Pashtun community, some of whom are tolerating or
even supporting Taliban insurgents. Despite the measurable loss of confidence in Karzai, many
Afghans consider their country’s difficulties as beyond his control, and he was still went into the August 20, 2009, as the favorite. Turnout was lower than expected, particularly in Karzai’s homeprovinces in the south, and the final but uncertified results, released September 16, 2009, show him at 54.6%. However, there have been widespread charges of fraud not only from his Tajik
main opponent, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, but also from a U.N.-backed Electoral Complaints
Commission that is investigating the charges. It is likely to take until October 7, 2009 until
a result is certified, and a major question is whether Karzai would still have a high enough (50%+)total to avoid a second-round runoff. Whether or not he has enough votes, observers in
Afghanistan say the two main contenders might try to avoid ethnic or political violence through
a negotiated settlement..."