CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Social Security: 2009 Update
"Today, Social Security’s annual revenues exceed its annual outlays. But as the baby-boom generation (people born between 1946 and 1964) continues to age, growth in the number of Social Security beneficiaries will pick up, and outlays will increase much faster than revenues. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the Social Security trust funds will be exhausted in 2043.1 (Unless otherwise stated, the years referred to in this report are calendar years.) Thus, if the law remains unchanged, CBO projects that 34 years from now, the Social Security Administration (SSA) will not have the legal authority to pay full benefits. Such long-term projections are necessarily uncertain; nevertheless, the general conclusions presented here hold true under a wide range of assumptions.

CBO regularly prepares long-term projections of revenues and outlays for the Social Security program.2 This latest report presents projections for the 75-year period
from 2009 through 2083; those estimates are consistent with CBO’s March 2009 10-year baseline.3 The projections differ from earlier results because of newly available
programmatic and economic data, updated assumptions about future demographic and economic trends, and improvements in CBO’s models..."