Thursday, February 12, 2009

Economic effect of proposed stimulus legislation as passed by the House and Senate.
" The macroeconomic impacts of any economic stimulus program are very uncertain. Economic theories differ in their predictions about the effectiveness of stimulus. Furthermore, large fiscal stimulus is rarely attempted, so it is difficult to distinguish among alternative estimates of how large the macroeconomic effects would be. For those reasons, some economists remain skeptical that there would be any significant effects, while others expect very large ones.

CBO has developed a range of estimates of the effects of stimulus legislation on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment that encompasses a majority of economists’ views. By CBO’s estimation, in the short run the stimulus legislation would raise GDP and increase employment by adding to aggregate demand and thereby boosting the utilization of labor and capital that would otherwise be unused because the economy is in recession. Most of the budgetary effects of the legislation would occur over the next few years, and as those effects diminished the short-run impact on the economy would fade."

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