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An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030

July 2, 2020

Report

CBO projects that from 2020 to 2030, annual real GDP will be 3.4 percent lower, on average, than it projected in January. The annual unemployment rate, which was projected to average 4.2 percent, is now projected to average 6.1 percent.

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Summary

This report presents the baseline economic forecast that CBO is using as the basis for updating its budget projections for 2020 to 2030. The agency currently plans to release those budget projections later this summer.

This economic forecast provides CBO’s first complete set of economic projections through 2030 since January and incorporates information available as of June 26. The baseline forecast is being published now, rather than later with the budget projections, to provide the Congress with CBO’s current assessment of the economic outlook in a rapidly evolving environment. This economic forecast updates the interim forecast that CBO published in May, which focused on 2020 and 2021. It is similar to the May forecast for those two years, except that the projection of growth in the second half of 2020 has been revised downward..."
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