"The Congressional Budget Office regularly publishes reports presenting its baseline projections of
what the federal budget and the economy would look like in the current year and over the next
10 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged. This report is
the latest in that series
• The Budget.
CBO projects that the federal budget deficit will shrink to $1.0 trillion in 2022 (it
was $2.8 trillion last year) and that the annual shortfall would average $1.6 trillion from 2023
to 2032. The deficit continues to decrease as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) next
year as spending related to the coronavirus pandemic wanes, but then deficits increase, reaching
6.1 percent of GDP in 2032. The deficit has been greater than that only six times since 1946 (see
Chapter 1).
Outlays are projected to average 23 percent of GDP over that period, a level high by historical
standards, boosted by rising interest costs and greater spending for programs that provide benefits
to elderly people (see Chapter 3). Revenues are projected to reach their highest level as a share
of GDP in more than two decades in 2022 and then to decline over the following few years but
remain above their long-term average through 2032 (see Chapter 4).
Relative to the size of the economy, federal debt held by the public is projected to dip over the
next two years, to 96 percent of GDP in 2023, and to rise thereafter. In CBO’s projections, it
reaches 110 percent of GDP in 2032 (higher than it has ever been) and 185 percent of GDP in
2052 (see Chapter 1). Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies
now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue (see Chapter 5)..."
Federal Budget
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